Combining observations with convection permitting simulations to better predict extreme rainfall in ungauged locations

 Can we better (more accurately) estimate subdaily extreme rainfall in ungauged locations?

To answer to this question we combined rainfall observations together with high-resolution (~2.5km) convective permitting climate models, and geostatistical tecniques. We then compared the proposed approach with traditional state of the art methods, i.e geostatistical spatialization from raingauge observations.

The proposed, climate model aided, approach equalises traditional interpolation methods in the data rich case (1 station in ~200km2), with the exception of low duration extreme rainfall (lower than 6 hours).
When moving towards data scarce areas cases (1 station in 400km2 and 1/800km2) the proposed approach outperforms traditional methods, providing more accurate estimate of subdaily extreme rainfall.

Please have look to the paper by (me) Giuseppe Formetta, Eleonora Dallan, marco borga, and Francesco Marra.

----> The link to the paper is here

GEOframe Winter School 2025 – Registration link

Dear All,

this is to remind that the seventh edition of the Winter School on GEOframe-NewAge will take place at the Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical engineering of the University of Trento on December 02-04, 2024 and January 07-10, 2025.

The school aims to help you in understanding the basic principles of physical hydrology and modeling each component of the hydrological cycle (i.e. rainfall, snow, evapotranspiration, runoff, root-zone water content and groundwater flow). 

The school is open to PhD students, postdoctoral researchers, young scientists, and local authorities professionals willing to understand hydrological processes and learning the modeling procedures based on the use of the GEOframe tools. We will explore different the modelling solutions available in the GEOframe system to quantify catchment water budget.

!!!! You can register your attendance at this link !!!!

You can find any information about the school at this link

GEOframe is a system for doing hydrology by computer. By saying that it is a system, we emphasise that it is not a model but an infrastructure that contain many differentiated modelling solutions (some tens of that), which are built upon models’ components. Each modeling solution represent the optimal model’s combination to quantify the single component of the hydrological cycle in any study area (i.e. spatially varying rainfall, snow, evapotranspiration, runoff, root-zone water content and groundwater levels) at any time resolution (i.e. from sub-hourly to yearly). GEOframe leverage on the Object Modelling system-framework (v3) that allows to connect modelling components to solve a specific hydrological issue together and having many alternative for its mathematical/numerical description. This infrastructure allows adapting the tools to the problems and not viceversa. GEOframe has been applied to hydrological simulations from the point scale to large catchments as the Blue Nile, and among those is being deployed to the Po river basin (the largest in Italy) and the Adige river basin, with high temporal and spatial resolution. For the latter two applications, distributable modeling solutions are available, calibrated and validated against measured data (e.g. runoff). GEOframe is open source and built with open-source tools.

The GEOframe crew

 

Quick GEOframe Collection of Articles and Links

If you are here, probably it's because someone has given you this link, or maybe you're looking for more information about the GEOframe system. If you don't know what we're talking about: GEOframe is a framework for hydrological modeling. You can find more information in the post GEOframe Essentials. This GEOframe blog, along with the one by Prof. Riccardo Rigon, AboutHydrology, is the main reference for the user community, where you can find all the necessary information. A good starting point is the article GEOframe information for beginners. The core of the framework, i.e., the code for the various models (or modules such as radiation, evapotranspiration, kriging, etc.), is available on the GEOframe GitHub page with a GPL license. These modules are run within an OMS console. To be used, they need to be defined together with their inputs and outputs and connected to other modules using scripts saved in files with the ".sim" extension, commonly referred to as sim files, usually saved in the "simulation" folder of the project. In addition, the GEOframe system includes several Jupyter notebooks useful for the creation of sim files, for the preparation of inputs (e.g., creating time series for rainfall and temperature), and for the visualization of outputs. In projects, these notebooks are typically found in the "Jupyter" folder.

A template for a GEOframe project is available on Open Science Framework (OSF) by searching, for example, for the latest Winter School—specifically the year 2024 edition, where the presentations are also available. The notebooks for preparing kriging, radiation, and evapotranspiration can be found in this Jupyter folder, and those for the hydrological model in this folder. Other models are explained during the Summer School. You can check out the materials from the GEOframe Summer School at IIT Bombay, Mumbai, India (July 2024), available here or here. Some examples of model usage can be found in the following recent presentations and papers (in chronological order, from most recent):

• The implementation of the GEOframe system in the Po river district – analysis of water availability and scarcity
• AIAM Conference 2024: GEOframe's Contribution to Agricultural Water Planning and Management
• GEOframe contributions at Giornate dell'Idrologia 2024 - Udine
• Formetta, G. and Morlot, M.: Compound heatwave and drought hazard quantification in a large anthropized alpine basin., EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-15136
• Morlot, M., Kay, A. L., and Formetta, G.: Climate change impact on the hydrological processes over an alpine basin: the Adige River, EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14–19 Apr 2024, EGU24-11834
• Morlot, Martin, Riccardo Rigon, and Giuseppe Formetta. 2023. “Hydrological Digital Twin Model of a Large Anthropized Italian Alpine Catchment: The Adige River Basin.” Journal of Hydrology, December, 130587
• Azimi, Shima, et al. “On Understanding Mountainous Carbonate Basins of the Mediterranean Using Parsimonious Modeling Solutions.”
• Bouabdelli, S., et al.: Influence of evapotranspiration formulation on long-term trends (1980-2022) of the Adige river basin hydrological water budget., EGU General Assembly 2023

You can get further help via the mailing lists, either the user list (https://groups.google.com/u/1/g/geoframe-schools) or the developer list (https://groups.google.com/u/1/g/geoframe-components-developers), depending on your needs.

The implementation of the GEOframe system in the Po river district – analysis of water availability and scarcity

 In recent years, the frequency of extreme events like floods and droughts, which can cause severe environmental, social, and economic damage, has increased due to climate change and environmental alterations. In response to these challenges, the Po River Basin District Authority (AdBPo) initiated the implementation of the GEOframe modelling system across the entire district in 2021, in collaboration with the GCU-M (Gruppo di Coordinamento Unificato-Magre). The goal was to enhance the existing numerical models for water resource management, providing more accurate quantification and forecasting of spatial and temporal water availability across the Po River Basin, thereby improving overall planning and decision-making processes.

Additionally, a historical analysis of water availability was conducted in Valle d’Aosta and Piemonte, showcasing GEOframe's ability to simulate all key components of the water cycle, including evapotranspiration, water storage, snow accumulation, and water discharge. The implementation of GEOframe in these mountainous regions also underscored the critical role of snow and glaciers in determining water availability, particularly in the context of rising temperatures due to climate change. As a result, future developments of GEOframe will prioritize improving the modelling of these elements to better capture their influence on water resources in a warming climate. The short presentation given at IDRA24 can be obtained by clicking on the above figure.  The poster is available here. . 

GEOframe Winter School 2025 - Save the dates: December 02-04, 2024; January 07-10, 2025

The GEOframe Winter School 2025 (GWS2025) will be will be held in Trento University (Department of civil, environmental and mechanical engineering) on

December 02-04, 2024; January 07-10, 2025

!!! Register your attendance now !!!

This is the preliminary program:

• December 02-04, 2024: Software Installation and Geomorphological analysis of the basin – Online, via zoom (or in-site if desired)

• January 07-10, 2025: kriging-based spatialisation of meteorological variables, energy balance and evapotranspiration estimate, snow modeling, river runoff simulation, models calibration and verification. Hands on seminars are also offered with the following topics: 1) satellite data for hydrological application and 2) meteorological dataset for hydrological applications (in situ data, modeled data, real-time and forecast data)  – Onsite

Output of the school 

The objective of the school is to enable the participant to set up and run the GEOframe system on their area of interest, with the spatially variable quantification of each component of the water balance (rainfall, snow, evapotranspiration, runoff, root-zone water content and groundwater levels)

Generalities

GEOframe is not just a model but a comprehensive system for hydrology that leverages computer technology. It consists of numerous differentiated modeling solutions, totaling tens of options, which are built upon model components. Each modeling solution represents an optimal combination of models to quantify specific components of the hydrological cycle in any study area, such as spatially varying rainfall, snow, evapotranspiration, runoff, root-zone water content, and groundwater levels, at various time resolutions ranging from sub-hourly to yearly. GEOframe utilizes the Object Modelling system-framework (v3)  to connect modeling components and solve specific hydrological issues, offering multiple alternatives for mathematical and numerical descriptions. This infrastructure allows the tools to adapt to the problems at hand, rather than the other way around. GEOframe has been successfully applied to hydrological simulations at different scales, from point scale to large catchments like the Blue Nile. Currently, it is being deployed in the Po river basin (the largest in Italy) and the Adige river basin, with high temporal and spatial resolution. Distributable modeling solutions calibrated and validated against measured data, such as runoff, are available for these applications. GEOframe is an open-source system built using open-source tools.

Contents of the school

GEOframe contains tens of components that cover rainfall-runoff, evaporation, transpiration, infiltration, terrain analysis tools, interpolation models, calibrations tools. 

The Winter school is about using some of these tools to perform the hydrological budget of catchments. The core rainfall-runoff model are dynamical systems (systems of ordinary differential equations) and the school mainly treats their theory and their use in a contemporary way as summarised in these 7 steps.

Besides the lectures and the hands-on sessions, the Winter School is the occasion for discussion and experience exchange among senior scholars and young researchers.

Participants' background

Admissions are reserved to up to 30, PhD students and postdoctoral researchers, young scientists, and local authorities professionals willing to understand hydrological processes and learning the modeling procedures based on the use of the GEOframe tools. Specifically, will study and model infiltration, energy budget, vegetation transpiration, water budget with process-based models

All students, scientist and professionals are asked to upload a CV and a motivation letter when applying.

Workload and credits

The Winter School, which is to be held in English, consists of 8 hours/day of activities for 8 days. 

The first three days, December 02-04 (included) 2024, will be dedicated to the installation of the GEOframe-OMS system tools and geomorphological analysis of the basin. Lectures will be brief, dedicated to informatics and the exploiting of the concepts of modeling by components, digital twin Earth. Most of the time will be used for supporting participants’ installations.

The other four days (January 07-10, 2025) will cover:

• Meteorological variables interpolation with Kriging techniques

• Short and longwave radiation estimate and simplified evapotranspiration methods

• Rainfall-Runoff modelling (as explained in these 7 steps) and calibration

Location and timing

University of Trento Polo Mesiano, H1 Room and Online. 

The three days on informatics, installations, and on geomorphological analysis of the basin (December 02-04 2024) will be also online. 

The other days (January 07-10 2025) will be onsite. The time schedule will be 9-13 and 14-18 CET each of the days. Lectures and workout will be recorded and immediately post on the VIMEO Channel of the School. Therefore, they could be followed off line. Special agreement will be arranged for supporting abroad students with fuse issues. 

Participation costs

Subscription to the class is necessary for anyone who want to attend the course. For Researcher, PhD students, and scientists who want the certificate of attendance and specific support on their own application, the Course costs 210 Euros. The certificate is issued after the presentation of a small project of simulations for which appropriate tutoring will be given during and after the School.

Please visit and register at the official registration form (Link will be updated soon) of the school.

The cost of the school is free for Students of the Hydrological Modelling Classes at the University of Trento; for Ph.D. students of the University of Trento DICAM and C3A programs; for the participants of the PRIN Waterstem, COACH-WAT, and SUNSET project; for the participant of the project “Studio delle caratteristiche idrologiche del Distretto del fiume Po mediante l’applicazione della modellistica GEOframe”; for Young Hydrological Society Italian members and the Società Idrologica Italiana (SII),

Scientific Committee 

Prof. Giuseppe Formetta, Ph.D; Ph.D., Eng. Marialaura Bancheri; Ph.D., Eng. Prof. Riccardo Rigon, Ph.D.

Organising Committee

Prof. Giuseppe Formetta, Ph.D; Ph.D., Eng. Marialaura Bancheri; PhD Eng. Concetta D’Amato, PhD. John Mohd Wani, Eng. Shima Azimi, Ms. Sc. Martin Morlot, Ing. Daniele Andreis, Ing. Gaia Roati, Ing. Riccardo Busti (the fantastic group of our Ph.D. students), Prof. Riccardo Rigon, Ph.D.

Organising Institutions

• Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering, University of Trento

• Center Agriculture Food Environment, University of Trento

• Institute for Agricultural and Forest Systems in the Mediterranean, National Research Council, Ercolano NA, Italy

Contacts

For further information write to: abouthydrology@google.com, giuseppe.formetta@unitn.it or to the Secretary of the Class dott. Lorena Galante, lorena.galante@unitn.it

Other information

The GSS2025 talks and labs will be recorded and made publicly available during the School for self-training through the GEOframe blog. Information about past Schools can be found here.

GEOframe Monsoon School - July 25-31, 2024 IIT Bombay, Mumbai India

The main goal of this school at IIT Bombay, was to familiarize participants with various aspects of hydrological modelling, with a specific emphasis on practical training using GEOframe and hydrological modelling tools developed at IIT Bombay. The program also included a one-day session featuring guest lectures and discussions on the future and advancement in hydrological modelling. 

Hydrological modelling is crucial for managing water resources, predicting water flow, flood inundation, and assessing climate change impacts. Modern computers enable simulations across extensive spatial and temporal scales. Developed at the University of Trento, Italy, GEOframe is a state-of-the-art system for hydrological analysis and modelling. It offers a suite of specialized solutions, each tailored to quantify different components of the hydrological cycle—rainfall, snow, evapotranspiration, runoff, root-zone water content, and groundwater amount—across any study area and time resolution. GEOframe's versatility has been proven in diverse applications, from point-scale studies to large catchments like the Blue Nile. It is currently being deployed with great detail in the Po River basin, Italy's largest river system. GEOframe is open source and built with open-source tools. 

                                                       Participants of the school with GEOframe crew. 

Organising Committee/Tutors:

Prof. Ricardo Rigon, University of Trento
Prof. Basudev Biswal, IIT Bombay
Prof. Giuseppe Formetta, University of Trento
Dr. John Mohd Wani, University of Trento
Dr. Concetta D'Amato, University of Trento
Sameer B. Uttarwar, University of Trento
Dr. Prashant Istalkar, IIT Bombay
Akshay Kadu, IIT Bombay
Dnyanesh Borase, IT Bombay
Ekant Sarkar, IIT Bombay
Saba Shakeel Raina, IT Bombay

 

Partners:
Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering, University of Trento
Center Agriculture Food Environment, University of Trento

GISE Hub, Geospatial Information Science & Engineering, IIT Bombay

Course Programme:

July 25 - General Overview about Hydrology and Modelling

• An overview of catchment processes hydrology between physics and modelling (slides, video)
• Introduction to GEOframe system and installation instructions (material, video)

July 26 - Geomorphology and Basin Delineation

• OSF Introduction (part 1. part 2, part 3, video)
• Geomorphology and basin delineation using GEOframe Input Builder (slides, material, video)

July 27 - Energy Budget and Kriging

• Theory on Shortwave and longwave radiation estimates (slides 1, 2, 3, 4, 5)
• Radiation estimation with GEOframe (material, video)
• Spatial interpolation of meteorological data (slides 1, 2, 3, video)
• Kriging estimate with GEOframe / Hands-on training (slides, material, video)
• Introduction to available gridded meteorological datasets (material, video)

July 28 - Steps in Hydrological Modelling & Evapotranspiration & GEOframe-NewAGE

• The seven steps on Hydrological modeling (slides 1, 2, 3, video)
• Evapotranspiration: From advanced theory to current simplifications (slides, video)
• ET estimation and sim file generation / Hands-on training (material 1, 2, video)
• The Embedded Reservoir Model (slides 1, 2, video)

July 29 - Rainfall-Runoff Modelling

• Challenges in calibration modelling (slides 1, 2, video)
• Introduction to creation of sim files for running rainfall runoff model in GEOframe (slides, material, video)

July 30 - Rainfall-Runoff Modelling with GEOframe

• The GEOframe story crew (slides, video)
• Visualizing subbasin network from topology files (material, video) 

July 31 - Workshop “Advances in hydrological modelling”

• Digital twin concept (slides, video)

During the school, the group of Prof. Basudev Biswal, IIT Bombay, India presented their rainfall-runoff model, i.e., the Dynamic Budyko model (material, video).

Additional material on the same topics can be found at the GEOframe School Index which contains links to the previous Schools and the Courses in Hydrological modelling. All the material is in English, obviously.

Survey for gaining users and attendees feedback on GEOFrame - Schools

 Dear GEOFrame users, 

please help us (GEOFrame developers) to gain your feedback on 

• GEOFrame schools 
• GEOFrame framework usage: difficulties you encountered, suggestions for improving the single parts of the code
• Potential area you would like to be developed and how 

To this LINK you can find the anonymous survey, which would take less than 5 minutes of your time and will be very helpful for the GEOFrame schools and framework future development.